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Untitled Essay, Research Paper Fiction, Fantasy, and Fact: The Mad Scramble for the Elusive Silver Bullet. . . and the Clock Ticks Away. Wayne Anderson November 7, 1996 The twelvemonth 2000 is practically around the corner, assuring a new epoch of illustriousness and admiration. . . every bit long as you don # 8217 ; t have a computing machine or work with one. The twelvemonth 2000 is conveying a Pandora # 8217 ; s Box of gifts to the computing machine universe, and the latch is easy coming undone. The twelvemonth 2000 bug is non truly a bug or virus, but is more a computing machine industry error. Many of the PC # 8217 ; s, mainframes, and package out there are non designed or programmed to calculate a future twelvemonth stoping in dual nothing. This is traveling to be a dearly-won hole for the industry to absorb. In fact, Mike Elgan who is the editor of Windows Magazine, says . . . the job could be concerns a sum of $ 600 billion to rectify. ( p. 1 ) The false belief that mainframes were the lone machines to be affected was short lived as industry realized that 60 to 80 million place and little concern users making math or accounting etc. on Windows 3.1 or older package, are merely as susceptible to this bug. Can this be repaired in clip? For some, it is already excessively late. A system that is devised to cut an one-year federal shortage to 0 by the twelvemonth 2002 is already in hot H2O. Data will go erroneous as the Numberss merely Don # 8217 ; t add up any longer. Some Personal computer proprietors can upgrade their computing machine # 8217 ; s BIOS ( or finish operating system ) and upgrade the OS ( runing system ) to Windows 95, this will put them up for another 99 old ages. Older package nevertheless, may really good hold to be replaced or at the really least, upgraded. The twelvemonth 2000 has become a double job. One is the inability of the computing machine to adapt to the MM/DD/YY issue, while the 2nd job is the reluctance to which we seem to be willing to turn to the impact it will hold. Most IS ( information system ) people are either unconcerned or unprepared. Let me give you a short return on the job we all are confronting. To salvage storage infinite -and possibly cut down the sum of key strokes necessary in order to come in the twelvemonth to date-most IS groups have allocated two figures to stand for the twelvemonth. For illustration, 1996 is stored as 96 in informations files and 2000 will be stored as 00. These two-digit day of the months will be on 1000000s of files used as input for 1000000s of applications. This two figure day of the month affects informations use, chiefly minuss and comparings. ( Jager, p. 1 ) For case, I was born in 1957. If I ask the computing machine to cipher how old I am today, it subtracts 57 from 96 and announces that I # 8217 ; m 39. So far so good. In the twelvemonth 2000 nevertheless, the computing machine will deduct 57 from 00 and state that I am -57 old ages old. This mistake will impact any computation that produces or uses clip spans, such as an involvement computation. Banker # 8217 ; s beware! ! ! Bringing the job closer to the home-front, allow # 8217 ; s analyze how the CAPS system is traveling to be affected. As CAPS is a many-sided system, I will concentrate on one country in peculiar, ISIS. ISIS ( Integrated Student Information System ) has the ability to acknowledge pupils, registry them, measure them, and maintain an academic history of each pupil ( classs, transcripts, transportation information, etc. ) inside of one system. This pupil information system has 100s and 100s of mentions to day of the months within it # 8217 ; s OS. This is a COBOL system accessing a ADABAS database. ADABAS is the file and file entree method used by ISIS to hive away pupil records on and recover them from. ( Shufelt, p.1 ) ADABAS has a set of regulations for puting up keys to specify which record to entree and what type of action ( read, compose, delete ) is to be performed. The day of the months will hold to hold centuries appended to them in order to stay right. Their ( CAPS ) hole is to alter the codification in the Procedure Division ( utilizing 30 as the cutoff gt ; 30 century = 19 lt ; 30 century = 20 ) . In other words, if the twelvemonth in inquiry is greater than 30 ( gt ; 30 ) so it can be assumed that you are mentioning to a twelvemonth in the twentieth century and a 19 will be moved to the century field. If the twelvemonth is less than 30 ( lt ; 30 ) so it will travel a 20 to the century field. If perfectly necessary, ISIS will add a field and a superdescriptor index in order to maintain record retrieval in the order that the plan codification expects. The current compiler at CAPS will non work beyond the twelvemonth 2000 and will hold to be replaced. The impermanent hole ( Kludge ) merely discussed ( lt ; 30 or gt ; 30 ) will let ISIS to run until the twelvemonth 2030, when they hope to hold replaced the current system by so. For those of you with your ain place computing machines, allow # 8217 ; s acquire up near and personal. This job will impact you every bit good! Up to 80 % of all personal Personal computers will neglect when the twelvemonth 2000 arrives. More than 80,000,000 Personal computers will be shut down December 31, 1999 with no jobs. On January 1, 2000, some 80,000,000 Personal computers will travel belly up! ( Jager, p. 1 ) These computing machines will believe the Berlin Wall is still standing and that Nixon was merely elected President! There is nevertheless, a trial that you can execute in order to see if you are on of the lucky minority that do non hold a job with the twelvemonth 2000 impacting their Personal computer. First, put the day of the month on your computing machine to December 31, 1999. Following, put the clip to 23:58 hours ( if you use a 24 hr clock ( Zulu clip ) ) or 11:58 p.m. for 12 hr redstem storksbills. Now, Power Off the computing machine for at least 3 to 5 proceedingss. Note: ( It is appropriate at this clip to express whatever mantras or spiritual chants you feel may be good to your mind ) . Following, Power On the computing machine, and look into your clip and day of the month. If it reads January 1, 2000 and about a minute or two past midnight, take a breath a suspiration of alleviation, your OS is free from the twelvemonth 2000 bug. If nevertheless, your computing machine gives you incorrect information, such as my ain Personal computer did ( March 12, 1945 at 10:22 ante meridiem ) welcome to the overpowering bulk of the population that has been found infected. All applications, from spreadsheets to electronic mail, will be adversely affected. What can you make? Possibly you can replace your computing machine with one that is Year 2000 compatible. Is the job in the RTC ( Real Time Clock ) , the BIOS, the OS? Even if you fix the hardware job, is all the package you use traveling to do the passage safely or is it traveling to pervert as good? ! The replies to these inquiries and others like them are non answerable with a yes or a no. For one thing, the prima experts in the computing machine universe can non hold that there is even a job, allow entirely discourse the magnitude upon which it will impact society and the concern universe. CNN correspondant Jed Duvall illustrates another possible job scenario. Suppose an person on the East Coast, at 2 proceedingss after midnight in New York City on January 1, 2000 decides to tag the twelvemonth and the century by naming a friend in California, where because of the clip zone difference, it is still 1999. With the current constellations in the phone company computing machines, the NewYorker will be billed from 00 to 99, a phone call some 99 old ages long! ! ! ( p. 1 ) What if you deposit $ 100 into a nest eggs account that pays 5 % involvement yearly. The following twelvemonth you decide to shut your history. The bank computing machine figures your $ 100 was at that place for one twelvemonth at 5 % involvement, so you get $ 105 back, simple plenty. What happens though, if you don # 8217 ; Ts take your money out before the twelvemonth 2000? The computing machine will re-do the computation precisely the same manner. Your money was in the bank from # 8216 ; 95 to # 8216 ; 00. That # 8217 ; s # 8216 ; 00 subtraction # 8216 ; 95, which peers a negative 95 ( -95 ) . That # 8217 ; s -95 old ages at 5 % involvement. That # 8217 ; s a small spot more than $ 10,000, and because of the subtraction mark, it # 8217 ; s traveling to deduct that sum from your history. You now owe the bank $ 9,900. Make I hold your attending yet? ? ! ! There is no industry that is immune to this job, it is a cross-platform job. This is a job that will impact Personal computers, minis, and mainframes. There are no speedy holes or what everyone refers to as the Silver Bullet. The Silver Bullet is the nomenclature used to stand for the creative activity of an automatic hole for the Yk2 job. There are two major jobs with this doctrine. First, there are excessively many variables from hardware to package of different types to think that a cure-all can be found that will make an all-embracing type of hole. Second, the outlook of the general population that there is such a hole or that one can be created instead rapidly and easy, is making state of affairss where people are seting off turn toing the job due to reliance on the panacea. The . . . certain person will repair it. type attitude pervades the industry and the population, doing this job more serious than it already is. ( Jager, p. 1 ) Peoples really think that there is a plan that you can get down running on Friday dark. . . everybody goes home, and Monday forenoon the job has been fixed. Cipher has to make anything else, the Yk2 job poses no more menace, it has been solved. To cite Peter de Jager, Such a tool, would be fantastic. Such a tool, would be deserving Billions of dollars. Such a tool, is a na ve pipe dream. Could person come near? Not really. . . Could something cut down this job by 90 % ? I don # 8217 ; t believe so. Could it cut down the job by 50 % ? Possibly. . . but I still don # 8217 ; t believe so. Could it cut down the work load by 30 % ? Quite likely. ( p. 2 ) Tools are available, but are merely tools, non cures or speedy holes. How will this affect society and the industry in 2000? How stable will package design companies be as more and more rivals offer immense inducements for people to leap ship and come work for them on their jobs! ? Cash flow jobs will set people out of concern. Computer coders will do large vaulting horses from now until 2000, as demand additions for their expertness. What about liability issues that arise because company A reneged on a trade because of a computing machine bug. Sue! Sue! Sue! What about ATM lockups, or recognition card failures, medical exigencies, downed phone systems. This is a broad spread scenario because the Yk2 job will impact all these elements and more. As is obvious, the dimensions to this challenge are evident. Given society # 8217 ; s trust on computing machines, the failure of the systems to run decently can intend anything from minor incommodiousnesss to major jobs: Licenses and permits non issued, paysheet and societal service cheques non cut, forces, medical and academic records misfunctioning, mistakes in banking and finance, accounts non paid or received, stock list non maintained, weapon systems malfunctioning ( frisson! ) , constitutional services non provided, and so on, and so on, and so on. Still think you # 8217 ; ll be unaffected. . . extremely improbable. This job will impact calculations which calculate age, kind by day of the month, comparison day of the months, or execute some other type of specialised undertaking. The Gartner Group has made the undermentioned estimates: At $ 450 to $ 600 per affected computing machine plan, it is estimated that a medium size company will spend from $ 3.6 to $ 4.2 million to do the package transition. The cost per line of codification is estimated to be $ .80 to $ 1. VIASOFT has seen plan transition cost rise to $ 572 to $ 1,204. ANDERSEN CONSULTING estimates that it will take them more than 12,000 working yearss to rectify its bing applications. Yellow CORPORATION estimates it will pass about 10,000 working yearss to do the alteration. Estimates for the rectification of this job in the United States entirely is upward of $ 50 to $ 75 Billion dollars. ( ITAA, p. 1 ) Is it possible to extinguish the job? Probably non, but we can do the passage much drum sander with cooperation and the right attack. Companies and authorities bureaus must understand the nature of the job. Unfortunately, the disbursement you find for new package development will non be found in Yk2 research. Ignoring the obvious is non the manner to attack this job. To presume that the job will be corrected when the system is replaced can be a dearly-won misjudgment. Precedences change, development agendas slip, and system constituents will be reused, doing the job to be even more widespread. Correcting the state of affairs may non be so hard as it will be clip devouring. For case, the Social Security Administration estimates that it will pass 300 man-years happening and rectifying these day of the month mentions in their information systems # 8211 ; systems stand foring a sum of 30 million lines of codification. ( ITAA, p. 3 ) Common sense dictates that a comprehensive transition program be developed to turn to the more immediate maps of an organisation ( such as bills, wage benefits, collect revenue enhancements, or other critical organisation maps ) , and continue from at that place to finish turn toing the less critical facets of operation. Some of the machine-controlled tools may aid to advance the fix of the systems, such as in: * line by line impact analysis of all day of the month mentions within a system, both in footings of informations and processs ; * undertaking cost estimating and mold ; * designation and listing of affected locations ; * redacting support to do the existent alterations required ; * alteration direction ; * and proving to verify and formalize the changed system. ( ITAA, p. 3 ) Clock simulators can run a system with a fake clock day of the month and can utilize applications that append or produce mistakes when the twelvemonth 2000 arrives while day of the month finders search across applications on specific day of the month standards, and browsers can assist users execute big volume codification review. Equally good as all these automated tools are, there are NO Silver Bullets out at that place. There are no speedy holes. It will take old fashioned work-hours by forces in order to do this rollover smooth and efficient. Another country to look at are the deductions for public wellness information. Public wellness information and surveillance at all degrees of local, province, federal, and international public wellness are particularly sensitive to and dependent upon day of the months for epidemiological ( survey of disease happening, location, and continuance ) and wellness statistics grounds. The day of the month of events, continuance between events, and other computations such as age of people are core epidemiologic and wellness statistic demands. ( Seligman, p. 1 ) Along with this, public wellness governments are normally dependent upon the primary informations suppliers such as physician patterns, research labs, infirmaries, managed attention organisations, and out-patient centres etc. , as the beginning for original informations upon which public wellness determinations are based. The CDC ( Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ) for illustration, maintains over 100 public wellness surveillance systems all of which are dependant upon external beginnings of informations. ( Issa, p. 5 ) This fundamentally means that it is non traveling to be sufficient to do the internal systems compliant to the twelvemonth 2000 in order to turn to all of the branchings of this issue. To exemplify this point, see the following scenario: in April 2000, a infirmary sends an electronic surveillance record to the local or province wellness section describing the decease of an person who was born in the twelvemonth 00 ; is this traveling to be a instance of infant mortality or a geriatric instance? ? Finally, allow # 8217 ; s expression at one of the largest package fabrication corporations and see what the deductions of the twelvemonth 2000 will be for Microsoft merchandises. Microsoft states that Windows 95 and Windows NT are capable of back uping day of the months up until the twelvemonth 2099. They besides make the statement nevertheless: It is of import to observe that when short, false day of the months ( mm/dd/yy ) are entered, it is impossible for the computing machine to state the difference between a twenty-four hours in 1905 and 2005. Microsoft # 8217 ; s merchandises, that assume the twelvemonth from these short day of the months, will be updated in 1997 to do it easier to presume a 2000-based twelvemonth. As a consequence, Microsoft recommends that by the terminal of the century, all Personal computer package be upgraded to versions from 1997 or subsequently. ( Microsoft, p. 1 ) PRODUCT NAME DATE LIMIT DATE FORMAT Microsoft Access 95 1999 assumed yy day of the months Microsoft Access 95 9999 long day of the months ( yyyy ) Microsoft Access ( following version ) 2029 assumed yy day of the months Microsoft Excel 95 2019 assumed yy day of the months Microsoft Excel 95 2078 long day of the months ( yyyy ) Microsoft Excel ( following version ) 2029 assumed yy day of the months Microsoft Excel ( following version ) 9999 long day of the months ( yyyy ) Microsoft Project 95 2049 32 spots Microsoft SQL Server 9999 datetime MS-DOS ( R ) file system ( FAT16 ) 2099 16 spots Ocular C++ ( R ) ( 4.x ) runtime library 2036 32 spots Ocular FoxPro 9999 long day of the months ( yyyy ) Windows 3.x file system ( FAT16 ) 2099 16 spots Windows 95 file system ( FAT16 ) 2099 16 spots Windows 95 file system ( FAT32 ) 2108 32 spots Windows 95 runtime library ( WIN32 ) 2099 16 spots Windows for Workgroups ( FAT16 ) 2099 16 spots Windows NT file system ( FAT16 ) 2099 16 spots Windows NT file system ( NTFS ) hereafter centuries 64 spots Windows NT runtime library ( WIN32 ) 2099 16 spots Microsoft farther states that its development tools and database direction systems provide the flexibleness for the user to stand for day of the months in many different ways. Proper preparation of developers to utilize day of the month formats that accommodate the passage to the twelvemonth 2000 is of the uttermost importance. For informational intents, I have included a chart that represents the more popular Microsoft merchandises, their day of the month bounds, and day of the month formats. ( Chart on old page ) ( Microsoft, p. 3 ) So. . . is everyone affected? Apparently non. In talking with the proprietors of St. John Valley Communications, an Internet-Access supplier based in Fort Kent, they are thirstily expecting the coming of 2000. They, Alan Susee and Dawn Martin had plenty foresight to do sure that when they purchased their equipment and related package, that it would wholly be twelvemonth 2000 compliant. It can be done, as evidenced by this hardworking twosome of persons. The key is to acquire informed and to remain informed. Effect the alterations you can now, and expression to redress the one # 8217 ; s that you can # 8217 ; t. The twelvemonth 2000 will be a shocker and thriller for many concerns, but St. John Valley Communications seem to hold it under control and are keeping their partry chapeaus in one manus and the mouse in the other. As is evidently clear from the information presented, Yk2 is a job to be reckoned with. The broad runing systems ( OS ) and package on the market lend acceptance to the thought that a silver slug hole is a pipe dream in the extreme. This is non nevertheless, an unsurmountable job. Efficient preparation and design is needed, every bit good as a battalion of man-hours to consequence the fixs needed to squelch the branchings and reverberations that will necessarily occur without intercession from within. The sit back and delay for a cure-all attack will non work, nor is it even imaginable that some people ( IS people ) with advanced cognition to the contrary, would purchase into this propaganda of slow technological decease. To misquote an old proverb, The clip for action was 10 old ages ago. Whatever may go on, January 1, 2000 will be a really interesting clip for some, a alleviation for others. . . and a nitrile capsule for the shirkers. What will you make now that you are better informed? Hopefully you will consequence the necessary fixs and go through the word to the others who may be taking this a small excessively lightly. It may non be a affair of life or decease, but it certainly as heck could intend your occupation and fiscal future.WORKS CITEDElgan, Mike. Experts deplore the denial of 2000 bug . Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cnn.com/2000. ( 31 October 1996 ) .Jager, Peter de. DOOMSDAY. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com/doom ( 2 November 1996 ) . * Believe me it # 8217 ; s existent! Early Warning. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com ( 4 November 1996 ) . * Biting the Silver Bullet. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com/bullet ( 2 November 1996 ) .Shufelt, Ursula. Yk2. Ursula @ maine.maine.edu. ( 7 November 1996 ) .Duvall, Jed. The twelvemonth 2000 does non calculate. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cnn.com/news ( 3 November 1996 ) .ITAA. The Year 2000 Software Conversion: Issues and Observations. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.itaa.org/yr2000-1.htm ( 7 November 1996 ) .Seligman, James A ; Issa, Nabil. The Year 2000 Issue: Deductions for Public Health Information and Surveillance Systems. Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cdc.gov/year2000.htm ( 9 November 1996 ) .Microsoft. Deductions of the Year 2000 on Microsoft Products. Hypertext transfer protocol: //army.mil/army-yk2/articles/y2k.htm ( 9 November 1996 ) .